· Analysis updated 16:41 UTC
Audax São Mateus vs Rio Branco ES Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for Audax São Mateus and 1.71 for Rio Branco ES, a combined total of 2.39. That distribution gives Rio Branco ES the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rio Branco ES win
62.4% probability
Expected goals
0.68 – 1.71
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Audax São Mateus home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rio Branco ES away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rio Branco ES to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 14% / 23% / 62% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.68 goals for Audax São Mateus and 1.71 for Rio Branco ES, a combined 2.39 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
38%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.7%
- 0–213.5%
- 1–110.6%
- 0–09.2%
- 1–29.1%
Recent form
Audax São Mateus
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Estrela do Norte · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Estrela do Norte · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs GEL · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Doze · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-18T22:45:00.000Z · A vs CTE Colatina · 5-0 (W)
Rio Branco ES
- 2026-06-27T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Uberlandia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-06-21T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Uberlandia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-14T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Porto BA · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-06-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Serra Talhada · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Audax São Mateus · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Espírito Santo table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto Vitória | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | Vitória ES | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Vilavelhense | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Rio Branco-VN | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Rio Branco ES | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Sport Brasil ES | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 6 |
| 7 | Serra Talhada | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 4 |
| 8 | Audax São Mateus | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rio Branco ES win, at 62.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.