· Analysis updated 20:23 UTC
Auerbach vs Eilenburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Auerbach and 1.89 for Eilenburg, a combined total of 4.15. That distribution gives Auerbach the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Auerbach win
46.8% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 1.89
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Auerbach home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Auerbach to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 20% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Auerbach and 1.89 for Eilenburg, a combined 4.15 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 78% and both teams to score at 76%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.6%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–16.7%
- 1–26.4%
- 3–15.7%
Recent form
Auerbach
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Einheit Rudolstadt · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Eilenburg · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Freital · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Dresden II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Budissa Bautzen · 3-0 (W)
Eilenburg
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Nordost-Süd table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ZFC Meuselwitz | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 20 |
| 2 | Germania Halberstadt | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Auerbach | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 4 | Eilenburg | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 16 |
| 5 | VfL Halle | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Weissenfels | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Dresden II | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Union Sandersdorf | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 9 | Plauen | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | SC Freital | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Budissa Bautzen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 9 |
| 12 | Einheit Wernigerode | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -6 | 8 |
| 13 | Empor Glauchau | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 14 | Krieschow | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 5 |
| 15 | Einheit Rudolstadt | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -15 | 3 |
| 16 | FC Frankfurt | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -21 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Auerbach win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.