· Analysis updated 20:16 UTC
Auerbach vs Einheit Wernigerode Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.86 expected goals for Auerbach and 1.20 for Einheit Wernigerode, a combined total of 4.06. That distribution gives Auerbach the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Auerbach win
71.7% probability
Expected goals
2.86 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Auerbach home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Einheit Wernigerode away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Auerbach to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 15% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.86 goals for Auerbach and 1.20 for Einheit Wernigerode, a combined 4.06 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.5%
- 3–18.1%
- 2–07.1%
- 3–06.8%
- 1–15.9%
Recent form
Auerbach
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Einheit Rudolstadt · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Eilenburg · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Freital · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Dresden II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Budissa Bautzen · 3-0 (W)
Einheit Wernigerode
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Budissa Bautzen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Plauen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-15T12:00:00.000Z · H vs VfL Halle · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Germania Halberstadt · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Heiligenstadt · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Nordost-Süd table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ZFC Meuselwitz | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 20 |
| 2 | Germania Halberstadt | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Auerbach | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 4 | Eilenburg | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 16 |
| 5 | VfL Halle | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Weissenfels | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Dresden II | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Union Sandersdorf | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 9 | Plauen | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | SC Freital | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Budissa Bautzen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 9 |
| 12 | Einheit Wernigerode | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -6 | 8 |
| 13 | Empor Glauchau | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 14 | Krieschow | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 5 |
| 15 | Einheit Rudolstadt | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -15 | 3 |
| 16 | FC Frankfurt | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -21 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Auerbach win, at 71.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.