· Analysis updated 18:04 UTC
Augsburg II vs Greuther Fürth II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.43 expected goals for Augsburg II and 1.55 for Greuther Fürth II, a combined total of 3.97. That distribution gives Augsburg II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Augsburg II win
56.9% probability
Expected goals
2.43 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Augsburg II home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Greuther Fürth II away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 1–17.1%
- 3–16.9%
- 2–26.6%
- 2–05.5%
Recent form
Augsburg II
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nürnberg II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Aubstadt · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Wacker Burghausen · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-15T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayern München II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Greuther Fürth II · 0-3 (L)
Greuther Fürth II
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ansbach · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Memmingen · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Wacker Burghausen · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayern München II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Nürnberg II · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · Augsburg II 0-3 Greuther Fürth II (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2026-05-09T12:00:00.000Z · Augsburg II 1-0 Greuther Fürth II (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2025-11-02T13:00:00.000Z · Augsburg II 1-0 Greuther Fürth II (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2025-01-19T11:00:00.000Z · Augsburg II 2-3 Greuther Fürth II (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-11-02T13:00:00.000Z · Augsburg II 1-1 Greuther Fürth II (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2024-07-20T12:00:00.000Z · Augsburg II 6-2 Greuther Fürth II (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2024-05-04T12:00:00.000Z · Augsburg II 1-1 Greuther Fürth II (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2023-10-14T12:00:00.000Z · Augsburg II 4-2 Greuther Fürth II (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2023-04-01T12:00:00.000Z · Augsburg II 1-2 Greuther Fürth II (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2022-09-10T12:00:00.000Z · Augsburg II 2-2 Greuther Fürth II (Regionalliga - Bayern)
Regionalliga - Bayern table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Memmingen | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 33 |
| 2 | Buchbach | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 29 |
| 3 | SpVgg Unterhaching | 15 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | TSV 1860 München | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 24 |
| 5 | Augsburg II | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 24 |
| 6 | Illertissen | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 23 |
| 7 | Bayreuth | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 22 |
| 8 | Vilzing | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| 9 | Eichstätt | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 21 |
| 10 | Wacker Burghausen | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 20 |
| 11 | Nürnberg II | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 20 |
| 12 | Bayern München II | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 13 | Eltersdorf | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 | Schwaben Augsburg | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 18 |
| 15 | FC Schweinfurt 05 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 |
| 16 | Greuther Fürth II | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -6 | 13 |
| 17 | Ansbach | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -17 | 12 |
| 18 | Aubstadt | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -7 | 11 |
| 19 | Landsberg | 15 | 1 | 6 | 8 | -16 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Augsburg II win, at 56.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.