· Analysis updated 14:57 UTC
Augsburg II vs Vilzing Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Augsburg II and 1.75 for Vilzing, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Vilzing the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vilzing win
47.5% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Augsburg II home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Vilzing away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–18.1%
- 2–17.1%
- 0–27.1%
Recent form
Augsburg II
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nürnberg II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Aubstadt · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Wacker Burghausen · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-15T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayern München II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Greuther Fürth II · 0-3 (L)
Vilzing
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SpVgg Unterhaching · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Eichstätt · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Buchbach · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Schwaben Augsburg · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Illertissen · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-14T16:00:00.000Z · Augsburg II 3-1 Vilzing (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2026-03-07T13:00:00.000Z · Augsburg II 1-0 Vilzing (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2025-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · Augsburg II 1-1 Vilzing (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2025-04-05T12:00:00.000Z · Augsburg II 0-2 Vilzing (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2024-09-28T12:00:00.000Z · Augsburg II 3-0 Vilzing (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2024-03-02T13:00:00.000Z · Augsburg II 1-1 Vilzing (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2023-08-25T17:00:00.000Z · Augsburg II 0-1 Vilzing (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2022-11-05T13:00:00.000Z · Augsburg II 2-3 Vilzing (Regionalliga - Bayern)
- 2022-07-16T12:00:00.000Z · Augsburg II 2-3 Vilzing (Regionalliga - Bayern)
Regionalliga - Bayern table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Memmingen | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 33 |
| 2 | Buchbach | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 29 |
| 3 | SpVgg Unterhaching | 15 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | TSV 1860 München | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 24 |
| 5 | Augsburg II | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 24 |
| 6 | Illertissen | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 23 |
| 7 | Bayreuth | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 22 |
| 8 | Vilzing | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| 9 | Eichstätt | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 21 |
| 10 | Wacker Burghausen | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 20 |
| 11 | Nürnberg II | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 20 |
| 12 | Bayern München II | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 13 | Eltersdorf | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 | Schwaben Augsburg | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 18 |
| 15 | FC Schweinfurt 05 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 |
| 16 | Greuther Fürth II | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -6 | 13 |
| 17 | Ansbach | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -17 | 12 |
| 18 | Aubstadt | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -7 | 11 |
| 19 | Landsberg | 15 | 1 | 6 | 8 | -16 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vilzing win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.