· Analysis updated 15:12 UTC
Aumund-Vegesack vs Blumenthaler SV Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.84 expected goals for Aumund-Vegesack and 2.87 for Blumenthaler SV, a combined total of 4.72. That distribution gives Blumenthaler SV the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Blumenthaler SV win
59.2% probability
Expected goals
1.84 – 2.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aumund-Vegesack home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Blumenthaler SV away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Blumenthaler SV to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 24% / 17% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.84 goals for Aumund-Vegesack and 2.87 for Blumenthaler SV, a combined 4.72 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–26.8%
- 1–36.5%
- 2–26.3%
- 2–36.0%
- 1–14.7%
Recent form
Aumund-Vegesack
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hemelingen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Woltmershausen · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Bremen · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Oberneuland · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Brinkumer SV · 2-3 (L)
Blumenthaler SV
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs BTS Neustadt · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen III · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-08-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Schwachhausen · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-09T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Geestemünde · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eimsbütteler TV · 0-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Bremen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brinkumer SV | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 30 |
| 2 | Hemelingen | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 37 | 28 |
| 3 | Blumenthaler SV | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 27 |
| 4 | OSC Bremerhaven | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 22 |
| 5 | Aumund-Vegesack | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 17 |
| 6 | Geestemünde | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 7 | Schwachhausen | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 14 |
| 8 | Vatan Sport | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 9 | Union Bremen | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Eiche Horn | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -11 | 12 |
| 11 | BTS Neustadt | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -12 | 12 |
| 12 | Leher TS | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 11 |
| 13 | Grohn | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -23 | 10 |
| 14 | Oberneuland | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -31 | 5 |
| 15 | Werder Bremen III | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -17 | 4 |
| 16 | Woltmershausen | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -27 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Blumenthaler SV win, at 59.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.