Aumund-Vegesack vs Brinkumer SV Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.45 expected goals for Aumund-Vegesack and 2.50 for Brinkumer SV, a combined total of 4.95. That distribution gives Brinkumer SV the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 84% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

60.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.45 – 2.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Aumund-Vegesack home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Brinkumer SV away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brinkumer SV to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 40% / 19% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.45 goals for Aumund-Vegesack and 2.50 for Brinkumer SV, a combined 4.95 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Aumund-Vegesack win40%

Draw19%

Brinkumer SV win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals96%

Over 2.5 goals87%

Over 3.5 goals73%

Both teams to score84%

Correct score

2–26.6%
2–35.5%
3–25.4%
1–25.4%
2–15.3%

Recent form

Aumund-Vegesack

2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hemelingen · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Woltmershausen · 7-1 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Bremen · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Oberneuland · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Brinkumer SV · 2-3 (L)

Brinkumer SV

2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Blumenthaler SV · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vatan Sport · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs OSC Bremerhaven · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Aumund-Vegesack · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-21T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Eiche Horn · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Bremen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Hemelingen	10	9	1	0	37	28
2	Blumenthaler SV	10	9	0	1	29	27
3	Brinkumer SV	10	9	0	1	26	27
4	OSC Bremerhaven	10	7	1	2	28	22
5	Aumund-Vegesack	10	5	2	3	9	17
6	Geestemünde	10	4	2	4	-3	14
7	Schwachhausen	10	4	2	4	-6	14
8	Vatan Sport	10	4	1	5	-4	13
9	Union Bremen	10	3	3	4	-3	12
10	Eiche Horn	10	3	3	4	-11	12
11	Leher TS	10	3	2	5	5	11
12	Grohn	10	3	1	6	-20	10
13	BTS Neustadt	10	3	0	7	-14	9
14	Oberneuland	10	1	2	7	-29	5
15	Werder Bremen III	10	1	1	8	-17	4
16	Woltmershausen	10	1	1	8	-27	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 60.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 84% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.