Aumund-Vegesack vs Hemelingen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Aumund-Vegesack and 3.60 for Hemelingen, a combined total of 5.32. That distribution gives Hemelingen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Hemelingen win

72.1% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.73 – 3.60

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Aumund-Vegesack home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hemelingen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hemelingen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 15% / 13% / 72% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Aumund-Vegesack and 3.60 for Hemelingen, a combined 5.32 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Aumund-Vegesack win15%

Draw13%

Hemelingen win72%

Double chance 1X

28%

Double chance 12

87%

Double chance X2

85%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals96%

Over 2.5 goals89%

Over 3.5 goals77%

Both teams to score79%

Correct score

1–36.5%
1–45.9%
2–35.6%
1–25.4%
2–45.1%

Recent form

Aumund-Vegesack

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs OSC Bremerhaven · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Schwachhausen · 3-3 (D)
2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Eiche Horn · 5-2 (W)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hemelingen · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Woltmershausen · 7-1 (W)

Hemelingen

2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Aumund-Vegesack · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-23T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Oberneuland · 6-0 (W)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eiche Horn · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Schwachhausen · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Woltmershausen · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Bremen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Hemelingen	11	10	1	0	38	31
2	Brinkumer SV	11	10	0	1	29	30
3	Blumenthaler SV	11	9	0	2	28	27
4	OSC Bremerhaven	11	8	1	2	31	25
5	Aumund-Vegesack	11	5	2	4	6	17
6	Geestemünde	11	5	2	4	0	17
7	Vatan Sport	11	5	1	5	-3	16
8	Leher TS	11	4	2	5	7	14
9	Schwachhausen	11	4	2	5	-8	14
10	Union Bremen	11	3	4	4	-3	13
11	BTS Neustadt	11	4	0	7	-12	12
12	Eiche Horn	11	3	3	5	-12	12
13	Grohn	11	3	1	7	-23	10
14	Werder Bremen III	11	1	2	8	-17	5
15	Oberneuland	11	1	2	8	-31	5
16	Woltmershausen	11	1	1	9	-30	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Hemelingen win, at 72.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.

It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.