Aumund-Vegesack vs Schwachhausen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.84 expected goals for Aumund-Vegesack and 1.64 for Schwachhausen, a combined total of 4.48. That distribution gives Aumund-Vegesack the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Aumund-Vegesack win

62.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.84 – 1.64

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Aumund-Vegesack home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Schwachhausen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Aumund-Vegesack win63%

Draw17%

Schwachhausen win21%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

37%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals82%

Over 3.5 goals65%

Both teams to score76%

Correct score

2–17.5%
3–17.1%
2–26.1%
3–25.8%
1–15.3%

Recent form

Aumund-Vegesack

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs OSC Bremerhaven · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Schwachhausen · 3-3 (D)
2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Eiche Horn · 5-2 (W)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hemelingen · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Woltmershausen · 7-1 (W)

Schwachhausen

2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Aumund-Vegesack · 3-3 (D)
2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Grohn · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-27T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Eiche Horn · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs BTS Neustadt · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hemelingen · 0-5 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · Aumund-Vegesack 3-3 Schwachhausen (Oberliga - Bremen)
2023-04-16T11:00:00.000Z · Aumund-Vegesack 3-0 Schwachhausen (Oberliga - Bremen)
2022-11-05T13:00:00.000Z · Aumund-Vegesack 1-0 Schwachhausen (Oberliga - Bremen)
2022-03-12T13:00:00.000Z · Aumund-Vegesack 2-2 Schwachhausen (Oberliga - Bremen)
2021-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · Aumund-Vegesack 2-2 Schwachhausen (Oberliga - Bremen)

Oberliga - Bremen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Brinkumer SV	11	10	0	1	29	30
2	Hemelingen	10	9	1	0	37	28
3	Blumenthaler SV	10	9	0	1	29	27
4	OSC Bremerhaven	11	8	1	2	31	25
5	Aumund-Vegesack	11	5	2	4	6	17
6	Geestemünde	11	5	2	4	0	17
7	Schwachhausen	10	4	2	4	-6	14
8	Union Bremen	11	3	4	4	-3	13
9	Vatan Sport	10	4	1	5	-4	13
10	Eiche Horn	10	3	3	4	-11	12
11	BTS Neustadt	11	4	0	7	-12	12
12	Leher TS	10	3	2	5	5	11
13	Grohn	11	3	1	7	-23	10
14	Werder Bremen III	11	1	2	8	-17	5
15	Oberneuland	11	1	2	8	-31	5
16	Woltmershausen	11	1	1	9	-30	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Aumund-Vegesack win, at 62.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.