· Analysis updated 16:48 UTC
Aumund-Vegesack vs Union Bremen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.68 expected goals for Aumund-Vegesack and 3.25 for Union Bremen, a combined total of 5.93. That distribution gives Union Bremen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 93% for over 2.5 goals and 89% for both teams to score, with 2–3 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Union Bremen win
50.8% probability
Expected goals
2.68 – 3.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aumund-Vegesack home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Union Bremen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 10 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–35.5%
- 2–25.0%
- 3–34.9%
- 3–24.5%
- 2–44.4%
Recent form
Aumund-Vegesack
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs OSC Bremerhaven · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Schwachhausen · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Eiche Horn · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hemelingen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Woltmershausen · 7-1 (W)
Union Bremen
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen III · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Geestemünde · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Blumenthaler SV · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vatan Sport · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs OSC Bremerhaven · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-02T11:00:00.000Z · Aumund-Vegesack 2-8 Union Bremen (Oberliga - Bremen)
- 2025-11-15T12:00:00.000Z · Aumund-Vegesack 3-1 Union Bremen (Oberliga - Bremen)
- 2025-04-13T12:00:00.000Z · Aumund-Vegesack 3-2 Union Bremen (Oberliga - Bremen)
- 2024-11-05T18:30:00.000Z · Aumund-Vegesack 1-3 Union Bremen (Oberliga - Bremen)
- 2024-05-11T13:00:00.000Z · Aumund-Vegesack 3-2 Union Bremen (Oberliga - Bremen)
- 2023-11-26T14:00:00.000Z · Aumund-Vegesack 7-2 Union Bremen (Oberliga - Bremen)
- 2023-02-05T14:00:00.000Z · Aumund-Vegesack 2-2 Union Bremen (Oberliga - Bremen)
- 2022-08-25T16:45:00.000Z · Aumund-Vegesack 2-1 Union Bremen (Oberliga - Bremen)
- 2022-02-20T14:00:00.000Z · Aumund-Vegesack 2-3 Union Bremen (Oberliga - Bremen)
- 2021-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · Aumund-Vegesack 2-2 Union Bremen (Oberliga - Bremen)
Oberliga - Bremen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hemelingen | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 31 |
| 2 | Brinkumer SV | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 30 |
| 3 | Blumenthaler SV | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 27 |
| 4 | OSC Bremerhaven | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 25 |
| 5 | Aumund-Vegesack | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | Geestemünde | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 7 | Vatan Sport | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 8 | Leher TS | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 |
| 9 | Schwachhausen | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 14 |
| 10 | Union Bremen | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 | BTS Neustadt | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -12 | 12 |
| 12 | Eiche Horn | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -12 | 12 |
| 13 | Grohn | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -23 | 10 |
| 14 | Werder Bremen III | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -17 | 5 |
| 15 | Oberneuland | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -31 | 5 |
| 16 | Woltmershausen | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -30 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Union Bremen win, at 50.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 89% and over 2.5 goals at 93%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.