Estadio Guillermo Slowing · Analysis updated 03:09 UTC
Aurora vs Deportivo San Pedro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Aurora and 1.00 for Deportivo San Pedro, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Aurora the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.9% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aurora home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo San Pedro away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aurora to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 28% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Aurora and 1.00 for Deportivo San Pedro, a combined 2.28 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.1%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–010.3%
- 0–110.3%
- 2–08.4%
Recent form
Aurora
- 2026-10-04T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Guastatoya · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cobán Imperial · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Marquense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Mixco · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-10T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Municipal · 1-2 (L)
Deportivo San Pedro
- 2026-10-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Aurora · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-16T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Suchitepéquez · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Comunicaciones · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Xelajú · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Guastatoya · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antigua GFC | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 29 |
| 2 | Municipal | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 3 | Guastatoya | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 27 |
| 4 | Mixco | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 25 |
| 5 | Xelajú | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 24 |
| 6 | Marquense | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 24 |
| 7 | Deportivo San Pedro | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 23 |
| 8 | Aurora | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 22 |
| 9 | Cobán Imperial | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 19 |
| 10 | Malacateco | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Comunicaciones | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | -3 | 18 |
| 12 | Suchitepéquez | 16 | 1 | 6 | 9 | -16 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.