Estadio Guillermo Slowing · Analysis updated 10:43 UTC
Aurora vs Municipal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Aurora and 1.10 for Municipal, a combined total of 2.23. That distribution gives Aurora the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.1% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aurora home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Municipal away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aurora to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 29% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Aurora and 1.10 for Municipal, a combined 2.23 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.4%
- 1–012.2%
- 0–111.9%
- 0–010.8%
- 2–17.5%
Recent form
Aurora
- 2026-10-04T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Guastatoya · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cobán Imperial · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Marquense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Mixco · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-10T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Municipal · 1-2 (L)
Municipal
- 2026-09-25T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Suchitepéquez · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Malacateco · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-10T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Aurora · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo San Pedro · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Comunicaciones · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guastatoya | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 27 |
| 2 | Municipal | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 3 | Antigua GFC | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 26 |
| 4 | Marquense | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 24 |
| 5 | Deportivo San Pedro | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 22 |
| 6 | Xelajú | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 21 |
| 7 | Mixco | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 21 |
| 8 | Aurora | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 | Cobán Imperial | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 16 |
| 10 | Comunicaciones | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | Malacateco | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 12 | Suchitepéquez | 15 | 1 | 5 | 9 | -16 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.