Aurora vs Nacional Potosí Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Aurora and 1.24 for Nacional Potosí, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Aurora the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Aurora win

45.5% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.59 – 1.24

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Aurora home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Nacional Potosí away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aurora to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 25% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.59 goals for Aurora and 1.24 for Nacional Potosí, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Aurora win46%

Draw25%

Nacional Potosí win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.6%
1–09.4%
2–19.2%
2–07.5%
0–17.3%

Recent form

Aurora

2026-10-20T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Independiente Petrolero · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Oruro · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-11T21:15:00.000Z · H vs Nacional Potosí · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z · H vs ABB · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Potosí · 1-1 (D)

Nacional Potosí

2026-10-03T21:15:00.000Z · H vs Real Oruro · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-30T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Tomayapo · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-25T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Always Ready · 9-0 (W)
2026-09-22T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Potosí · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Potosí · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bolívar	22	16	3	3	34	51
2	Always Ready	22	14	6	2	35	48
3	The Strongest	22	13	6	3	17	45
4	Real Potosí	23	10	8	5	14	38
5	Oriente Petrolero	22	10	4	8	10	34
6	Aurora	22	7	10	5	3	31
7	Guabirá	22	8	6	8	-10	30
8	Independiente Petrolero	23	8	5	10	-8	29
9	Blooming	23	6	10	7	6	28
10	Nacional Potosí	22	8	4	10	1	28
11	Real Oruro	22	8	3	11	-15	27
12	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	23	7	3	13	-19	24
13	Universitario de Vinto	22	6	3	13	-14	21
14	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	23	4	8	11	-13	20
15	ABB	23	6	2	15	-18	20
16	Real Tomayapo	22	5	5	12	-23	20

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Aurora win, at 45.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.