Aurora vs Real Potosí Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Aurora and 1.58 for Real Potosí, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Real Potosí the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

67.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.33 – 1.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Aurora home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Real Potosí away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Potosí to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 32% / 25% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Aurora and 1.58 for Real Potosí, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Aurora win32%

Draw25%

Real Potosí win43%

Double chance 1X

57%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–111.5%
1–29.0%
0–18.7%
2–17.6%
1–07.3%

Recent form

Aurora

2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Universitario de Vinto · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Guabirá · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-11T22:00:00.000Z · A vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-08T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Potosí · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T21:15:00.000Z · H vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ · 3-0 (W)

Real Potosí

2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs The Strongest · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-06T22:00:00.000Z · H vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Aurora · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-29T22:00:00.000Z · H vs ABB · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · A vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Always Ready	21	14	6	1	36	48
2	Bolívar	21	15	3	3	33	48
3	The Strongest	21	12	6	3	16	42
4	Real Potosí	21	9	8	4	14	35
5	Oriente Petrolero	21	10	3	8	10	33
6	Aurora	21	7	10	4	4	31
7	Guabirá	21	8	5	8	-10	29
8	Nacional Potosí	21	8	4	9	2	28
9	Blooming	21	6	9	6	7	27
10	Independiente Petrolero	21	7	4	10	-10	25
11	Real Oruro	21	7	3	11	-16	24
12	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	21	6	3	12	-19	21
13	ABB	21	6	2	13	-15	20
14	Universitario de Vinto	21	5	3	13	-15	18
15	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	21	3	8	10	-13	17
16	Real Tomayapo	21	4	5	12	-24	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.