· Referee H. Sandoval · Analysis updated 08:11 UTC
Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Aurora and 0.65 for Universitario de Vinto, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Aurora the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Aurora win
55.8% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aurora home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Universitario de Vinto away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aurora to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 27% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Aurora and 0.65 for Universitario de Vinto, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.9%
- 2–012.7%
- 0–012.6%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–18.3%
Recent form
Aurora
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Universitario de Vinto · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Guabirá · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T22:00:00.000Z · A vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Potosí · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T21:15:00.000Z · H vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ · 3-0 (W)
Universitario de Vinto
- 2026-10-17T21:15:00.000Z · H vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Oruro · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-08T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Oriente Petrolero · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T23:30:00.000Z · A vs The Strongest · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Guabirá · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa de la División Profesional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Petrolero | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Bolívar | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 3 | Aurora | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 18 |
| 4 | Nacional Potosí | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 17 |
| 5 | Real Potosí | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Oriente Petrolero | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | The Strongest | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Guabirá | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 9 | Always Ready | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 11 |
| 10 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Real Tomayapo | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 10 |
| 12 | Universitario de Vinto | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 13 | Real Oruro | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 14 | ABB | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 6 |
| 16 | Blooming | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Aurora win, at 55.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.