· Analysis updated 08:17 UTC
Aurrerá Vitoria vs Santurtzi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for Aurrerá Vitoria and 1.02 for Santurtzi, a combined total of 2.56. That distribution gives Aurrerá Vitoria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Aurrerá Vitoria win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aurrerá Vitoria home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aurrerá Vitoria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 26% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.54 goals for Aurrerá Vitoria and 1.02 for Santurtzi, a combined 2.56 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 47% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–011.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–09.2%
- 0–17.9%
Recent form
Aurrerá Vitoria
- 2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs San Ignacio · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad III · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Leioa · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Erandio · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sodupe · 3-0 (W)
Santurtzi
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leioa | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 16 |
| 2 | Aurrerá Vitoria | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 16 |
| 3 | Derio | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | San Ignacio | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 14 |
| 5 | Touring | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Aretxabaleta | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Durango | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Deportivo Alavés III | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 |
| 9 | Real Sociedad III | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | Eibar III | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 11 | Beasain | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 12 | Sodupe | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Pasaia KE | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 14 | Santurtzi | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Lagun Onak | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Erandio | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 17 | R. Union B | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 18 | Amurrio Club | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Aurrerá Vitoria win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.