· Analysis updated 15:35 UTC
Austevoll vs Askøy Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Austevoll and 1.98 for Askøy, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives Askøy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Askøy win
46.7% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Austevoll home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Askøy away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Askøy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 32% / 22% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Austevoll and 1.98 for Askøy, a combined 3.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.9%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.1%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–35.8%
Recent form
Austevoll
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sogndal II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gneist · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Askøy · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Djerv · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Varegg · 2-2 (D)
Askøy
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Fana · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Os · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Brann II · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Austevoll · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stord · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 3 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Askøy win, at 46.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.