· Analysis updated 13:10 UTC
Austevoll vs Førde Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.47 expected goals for Austevoll and 1.88 for Førde, a combined total of 4.35. That distribution gives Austevoll the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Austevoll win
51.4% probability
Expected goals
2.47 – 1.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Austevoll home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Førde away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Austevoll to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 19% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.47 goals for Austevoll and 1.88 for Førde, a combined 4.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.4%
- 2–26.9%
- 3–16.1%
- 1–16.0%
- 3–25.7%
Recent form
Austevoll
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sogndal II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gneist · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Askøy · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Djerv · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Varegg · 2-2 (D)
Førde
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Åsane II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fana · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Aalesund · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Vard · 0-9 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Os · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 3 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Austevoll win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.