Parmer Filed · Analysis updated 15:21 UTC
Austin II vs Sporting KC II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.21 expected goals for Austin II and 0.66 for Sporting KC II, a combined total of 3.86. That distribution gives Austin II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 86%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 86% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Austin II win
85.9% probability
Expected goals
3.21 – 0.66
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Austin II home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Austin II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 86%, against 86% / 10% / 5% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.21 goals for Austin II and 0.66 for Sporting KC II, a combined 3.86 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 74% and both teams to score at 46%, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
96%
Double chance 12
91%
Double chance X2
14%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–011.5%
- 2–010.8%
- 4–09.2%
- 3–17.6%
- 2–17.1%
Recent form
Austin II
- 2026-09-04T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Houston Dynamo FC II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Portland Timbers II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-24T00:30:00.000Z · H vs The Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-20T00:45:00.000Z · A vs North Texas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-16T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver Whitecaps II · 4-1 (W)
Sporting KC II
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
MLS Next Pro table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Austin II win, at 85.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 86% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.