Q2 Stadium · Referee Sergii Demianchuk, USA · Analysis updated 16:16 UTC
Austin vs Colorado Rapids Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Austin and 1.37 for Colorado Rapids, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Austin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.8% probability
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Austin home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Colorado Rapids away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Austin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 26% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.37 goals for Austin and 1.37 for Colorado Rapids, a combined 2.74 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 0–18.8%
- 1–08.8%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.9%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.38 | 68.5% | 70.5% | 1.42 | +2.0 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.15 | 43.0% | 44.4% | 2.25 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Away | 2.58 | 36.2% | 37.2% | 2.69 | +1.0 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.00 | 47.4% | 48.4% | 2.07 | +1.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.50 | 62.2% | 62.8% | 1.59 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Home | 2.50 | 37.4% | 37.2% | 2.69 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.48 | 63.1% | 62.8% | 1.59 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.7% | 74.4% | 1.34 | -0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.55 | 26.3% | 25.6% | 3.91 | -0.7 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.80 | 52.6% | 51.6% | 1.94 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 57.0% | 55.6% | 1.80 | -1.4 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.00 | 31.5% | 29.5% | 3.39 | -2.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Austin
- 2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Nashville SC · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · H vs San Diego · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T00:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Dallas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Vancouver Whitecaps · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Colorado Rapids · 1-1 (D)
Colorado Rapids
- 2026-10-11T01:30:00.000Z · H vs San Jose Earthquakes · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Los Angeles Galaxy · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Seattle Sounders · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-17T01:30:00.000Z · H vs St. Louis City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T01:30:00.000Z · H vs CF Montreal · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 31 | 52 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 51 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 50 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 47 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 46 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 45 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 41 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -9 | 39 |
| 9 | Colorado Rapids | 29 | 11 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 38 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | -5 | 33 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | -5 | 33 |
| 12 | San Diego | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 33 |
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | -9 | 31 |
| 14 | Austin | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | -17 | 31 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 29 | 6 | 4 | 19 | -37 | 22 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 29 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 41 | 66 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 29 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 20 | 52 |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 29 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 49 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 48 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 46 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 29 | 13 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 45 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 29 | 11 | 5 | 13 | -15 | 38 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | -15 | 36 |
| 9 | FC Cincinnati | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | -8 | 36 |
| 10 | New York City FC | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 2 | 33 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 29 | 7 | 12 | 10 | -11 | 33 |
| 12 | DC United | 28 | 7 | 12 | 9 | -11 | 33 |
| 13 | Columbus Crew | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | -3 | 32 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 29 | 8 | 6 | 15 | -12 | 30 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 29 | 6 | 6 | 17 | -24 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.