Q2 Stadium · Referee Jon Freemon · Analysis updated 19:48 UTC
Austin vs San Diego Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Austin and 1.25 for San Diego, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Austin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Austin home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Diego away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Austin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 26% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Austin and 1.25 for San Diego, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–010.0%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–27.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.50 (model 47.1% vs market 36.5%, edge +10.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.50 | 36.5% | 47.1% | 2.12 | +10.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.57 | 59.2% | 60.9% | 1.64 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Home | 2.30 | 39.1% | 39.2% | 2.55 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.62 | 34.4% | 34.5% | 2.90 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.5% | 26.4% | 3.79 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.4% | 73.7% | 1.36 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.40 | 66.4% | 65.6% | 1.52 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.44 | 63.5% | 52.9% | 1.89 | -10.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Austin
- 2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Nashville SC · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · H vs San Diego · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T00:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Dallas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Vancouver Whitecaps · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Colorado Rapids · 1-1 (D)
San Diego
- 2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · A vs New York Red Bulls · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Austin · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Miami · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Philadelphia Union · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-10T02:30:00.000Z · H vs San Jose Earthquakes · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · Austin 3-3 San Diego (Major League Soccer)
- 2026-05-14T01:30:00.000Z · Austin 0-5 San Diego (Major League Soccer)
- 2025-06-01T02:30:00.000Z · Austin 0-2 San Diego (Major League Soccer)
- 2025-03-23T20:00:00.000Z · Austin 2-1 San Diego (Major League Soccer)
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 31 | 51 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 50 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 47 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 46 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 45 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 42 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 41 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 37 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | -11 | 36 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | -3 | 33 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | -5 | 32 |
| 12 | San Diego | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -3 | 32 |
| 13 | Austin | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -15 | 31 |
| 14 | Minnesota United FC | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | -9 | 30 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | -33 | 22 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 28 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 63 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 28 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 18 | 49 |
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 48 |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 28 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 46 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 46 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | -15 | 37 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | -14 | 36 |
| 9 | FC Cincinnati | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | -7 | 36 |
| 10 | New York City FC | 28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 33 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | -11 | 32 |
| 12 | DC United | 27 | 6 | 12 | 9 | -12 | 30 |
| 13 | Columbus Crew | 28 | 8 | 5 | 15 | -5 | 29 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | -15 | 27 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | -21 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.