Austin vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Austin and 1.20 for San Jose Earthquakes, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Austin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Austin win

47.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.63 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Austin home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Jose Earthquakes away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 10 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Austin win47%

Draw25%

San Jose Earthquakes win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–111.6%
1–09.6%
2–19.4%
2–07.8%
0–17.1%

Recent form

Austin

2026-10-25T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Kansas City · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-18T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver Whitecaps · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-15T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Los Angeles FC · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Nashville SC · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · H vs San Diego · 3-3 (D)

San Jose Earthquakes

2026-10-18T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Nashville SC · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-15T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Salt Lake · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-11T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Colorado Rapids · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Portland Timbers · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Los Angeles FC · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-09-06T00:30:00.000Z · Austin 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes (Major League Soccer)
2026-04-23T02:30:00.000Z · Austin 1-5 San Jose Earthquakes (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-19T01:00:00.000Z · Austin 1-2 San Jose Earthquakes (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-31T00:30:00.000Z · Austin 3-1 San Jose Earthquakes (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-09T02:30:00.000Z · Austin 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes (US Open Cup)
2024-05-26T02:30:00.000Z · Austin 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes (Major League Soccer)
2024-04-07T00:30:00.000Z · Austin 4-3 San Jose Earthquakes (Major League Soccer)
2023-10-22T01:00:00.000Z · Austin 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes (Major League Soccer)
2023-04-30T00:30:00.000Z · Austin 2-2 San Jose Earthquakes (Major League Soccer)
2022-08-07T01:00:00.000Z · Austin 3-3 San Jose Earthquakes (Major League Soccer)

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	31	16	7	8	31	55
2	FC Dallas	31	15	9	7	11	54
3	St. Louis City	31	14	9	8	12	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	31	13	9	9	7	48
5	Houston Dynamo	31	13	9	9	2	48
6	Los Angeles FC	31	12	10	9	15	46
7	Colorado Rapids	31	12	6	13	1	42
8	Seattle Sounders	30	11	9	10	2	42
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	10	10	11	-9	40
10	Real Salt Lake	31	11	6	14	0	39
11	Minnesota United FC	31	8	11	12	-8	35
12	Portland Timbers	30	9	7	14	-5	34
13	San Diego	30	8	10	12	-3	34
14	Austin	31	8	10	13	-17	34
15	Sporting Kansas City	31	6	4	21	-40	22
1	Nashville SC	31	21	7	3	43	70
2	New England Revolution	31	17	4	10	9	55
3	Inter Miami	31	15	10	6	20	55
4	Chicago Fire	31	15	6	10	9	51
5	Charlotte	30	13	8	9	8	47
6	Philadelphia Union	31	13	7	11	12	46
7	Orlando City SC	31	12	6	13	-12	42
8	FC Cincinnati	31	11	9	11	-7	42
9	New York Red Bulls	31	11	6	14	-15	39
10	Columbus Crew	31	11	5	15	1	38
11	Toronto FC	31	8	12	11	-11	36
12	New York City FC	31	8	11	12	2	35
13	DC United	31	7	12	12	-17	33
14	Atlanta United FC	31	8	6	17	-15	30
15	CF Montreal	31	6	7	18	-26	25

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Austin win, at 47.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.