Stadion Gelora Bung Tomo · Analysis updated 22:32 UTC
Australia U19 vs Thailand U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.73 expected goals for Australia U19 and 2.63 for Thailand U19, a combined total of 5.36. That distribution gives Australia U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 90% for over 2.5 goals and 86% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
60.5% probability
Expected goals
2.73 – 2.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Thailand U19 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Australia U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 18% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.73 goals for Australia U19 and 2.63 for Thailand U19, a combined 5.36 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 90% and both teams to score at 86%, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.1%
- 3–25.5%
- 2–35.3%
- 3–34.8%
- 2–14.6%
Recent form
Australia U19
Thailand U19
- 2026-06-13T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Australia U19 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-11T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Cambodia U19 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-06-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Malaysia U19 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-06-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Singapore U19 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-06-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Brunei U19 · 9-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
ASEAN Championship U19 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Indonesia U19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Vietnam U19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 |
| 3 | Myanmar U19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 4 | Timor-Leste U19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 0 |
| 1 | Thailand U19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 9 |
| 2 | Malaysia U19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 3 | Singapore U19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Brunei U19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -17 | 0 |
| 1 | Australia U19 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 |
| 2 | Cambodia U19 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | Philippines U19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 60.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 86% and over 2.5 goals at 90%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.