Queensland Country Bank Stadium · Referee Ryo Tanimoto, Japan · Analysis updated 15:40 UTC
Australia vs Brazil Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Australia and 1.53 for Brazil, a combined total of 2.69. That distribution gives Brazil the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Brazil win
45.8% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Australia home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Brazil away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brazil to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 29% / 25% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Australia and 1.53 for Brazil, a combined 2.69 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–28.0%
- 1–07.9%
Recent form
Australia
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Brazil · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-25T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Brazil · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Egypt · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-26T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Paraguay · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs USA · 0-2 (L)
Brazil
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs India · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Australia · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-25T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Australia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-05T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Norway · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Japan · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · Australia 2-4 Brazil (Friendlies)
- 2026-09-25T10:00:00.000Z · Australia 1-1 Brazil (Friendlies)
- 2017-06-13T10:05:00.000Z · Australia 0-4 Brazil (Friendlies)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Brazil win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.