Austria Klagenfurt vs Velden Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Austria Klagenfurt and 1.50 for Velden, a combined total of 2.67. That distribution gives Velden the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

70.2% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.18 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Austria Klagenfurt home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Velden away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Velden to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 30% / 26% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Austria Klagenfurt and 1.50 for Velden, a combined 2.67 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Austria Klagenfurt win30%

Draw26%

Velden win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
0–110.3%
1–29.1%
1–08.1%
0–27.7%

Recent form

Austria Klagenfurt

2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Wolfsberger AC II · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-27T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Treibach · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-22T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Donau Klagenfurt · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-11T17:20:00.000Z · H vs Wolfsberg · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Velden · 2-2 (D)

Velden

2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Wolfsberg · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Treibach · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Völkermarkt · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bleiburg · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Wolfsberger AC II · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - South table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Velden	12	7	5	0	11	26
2	Deutschlandsberger SC	11	6	4	1	8	22
3	Völkermarkt	12	6	2	4	11	20
4	Treibach	12	6	2	4	7	20
5	Austria Klagenfurt	12	6	2	4	1	20
6	Weiz	11	4	6	1	6	18
7	Kalsdorf	11	5	3	3	4	18
8	Wolfsberger AC	12	5	3	4	2	18
9	SV Lafnitz	11	4	5	2	2	17
10	Allerheiligen	11	3	3	5	1	12
11	Tillmitsch	11	2	5	4	-3	11
12	Bleiburg	12	2	4	6	-5	10
13	Hartberg (Am)	11	2	4	5	-7	10
14	Wolfsberg	12	2	4	6	-17	10
15	Gleisdorf 09	11	2	2	7	-11	8
16	Donau Klagenfurt	12	1	4	7	-10	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.