Max-Aicher-Stadion · Analysis updated 15:41 UTC
Austria Salzburg vs First Vienna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for Austria Salzburg and 1.50 for First Vienna, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Austria Salzburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Austria Salzburg win
67.8% probability
Expected goals
3.00 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Austria Salzburg home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
First Vienna away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Austria Salzburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 16% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.00 goals for Austria Salzburg and 1.50 for First Vienna, a combined 4.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.5%
- 3–17.5%
- 4–15.6%
- 2–25.6%
- 3–25.6%
Recent form
Austria Salzburg
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Voitsberg · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Sturm Graz II · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs First Vienna · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · A vs SKN ST. Polten · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-21T16:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Kapfenberg · 3-2 (W)
First Vienna
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs WSPG Wels · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Rapid Wien II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Austria Salzburg · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · H vs SKU Amstetten · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Admira Wacker · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Austria Salzburg win, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.