Generali Arena · Referee Markus Greinecker, Austria · Analysis updated 14:18 UTC
Austria Vienna (Am) vs Austria Salzburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.50 expected goals for Austria Vienna (Am) and 2.25 for Austria Salzburg, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Austria Salzburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Austria Salzburg win
77.4% probability
Expected goals
0.50 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Austria Vienna (Am) home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Austria Salzburg away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Austria Salzburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 7% / 16% / 77% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.50 goals for Austria Vienna (Am) and 2.25 for Austria Salzburg, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
23%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
93%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–216.2%
- 0–114.4%
- 0–312.1%
- 1–28.1%
- 1–17.2%
Recent form
Austria Vienna (Am)
- 2026-10-23T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Sturm Graz II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs WSPG Wels · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Kapfenberg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Rapid Wien II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs SKU Amstetten · 2-4 (L)
Austria Salzburg
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Voitsberg · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Sturm Graz II · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs First Vienna · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · A vs SKN ST. Polten · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-21T16:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Kapfenberg · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC BW Linz | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 25 |
| 2 | First Vienna | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 25 |
| 3 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 4 | Admira Wacker | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 5 | SKU Amstetten | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Austria Salzburg | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Wacker Innsbruck | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | FC Liefering | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 9 | Floridsdorfer AC | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | Voitsberg | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | SKN ST. Polten | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Sturm Graz II | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | WSPG Wels | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 15 | SV Kapfenberg | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Rapid Wien II | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -12 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Austria Salzburg win, at 77.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.