Austria Vienna vs Beitar Jerusalem Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.10 for Beitar Jerusalem, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Austria Vienna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Austria Vienna win

61.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.18 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Austria Vienna home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Beitar Jerusalem away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Austria Vienna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 20% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Austria Vienna and 1.10 for Beitar Jerusalem, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Austria Vienna win62%

Draw20%

Beitar Jerusalem win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

38%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

2–19.8%
1–19.0%
2–08.9%
1–08.2%
3–17.1%

Recent form

Austria Vienna

2026-10-23T17:30:00.000Z · A vs SCR Altach · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-17T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Ried · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-10T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Sturm Graz · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Admira Wacker · 6-1 (W)
2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Grazer AK · 2-2 (D)

Beitar Jerusalem

2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Haifa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Petah Tikva · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-07T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Bnei Sakhnin · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-03T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Tel Aviv · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-29T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Netanya · 1-4 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-13T18:30:00.000Z · Austria Vienna 1-2 Beitar Jerusalem (UEFA Europa Conference League)
2026-08-06T17:30:00.000Z · Austria Vienna 2-1 Beitar Jerusalem (UEFA Europa Conference League)

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Panathinaikos	2	2	0	0	5	6
2	FC Lugano	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Brann	2	2	0	0	4	6
4	Trabzonspor	2	2	0	0	4	6
5	Twente	2	2	0	0	4	6
6	Monaco	2	2	0	0	4	6
7	St. Truiden	2	2	0	0	3	6
8	HNK Hajduk Split	2	2	0	0	2	6
9	Brighton	2	1	1	0	4	4
10	FC Copenhagen	2	1	1	0	3	4
11	Universitatea Craiova	2	1	1	0	2	4
12	Mjallby AIF	2	1	1	0	2	4
13	Ajax	2	1	0	1	1	3
14	Borac Banja Luka	2	1	0	1	1	3
15	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	0	3
16	SC Braga	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Gent	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	SC Freiburg	2	1	0	1	-2	3
19	FC Nordsjaelland	2	0	2	0	0	2
20	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	2	0	2	0	0	2
21	Riga	2	0	2	0	0	2
22	FK Crvena Zvezda	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	CSKA Sofia	2	0	1	1	-1	1
24	FK Jablonec	2	0	1	1	-1	1
25	FC Midtjylland	2	0	1	1	-1	1
26	Aarhus	2	0	1	1	-1	1
27	Pafos	2	0	1	1	-2	1
28	Heart Of Midlothian	2	0	1	1	-2	1
29	FC Iberia 1999	2	0	1	1	-2	1
30	Getafe	2	0	1	1	-3	1
31	Kairat Almaty	2	0	1	1	-4	1
32	FC Thun	2	0	0	2	-2	0
33	Lincoln Red Imps FC	2	0	0	2	-4	0
34	KuPS	2	0	0	2	-4	0
35	Inter Club d'Escaldes	2	0	0	2	-4	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Austria Vienna win, at 61.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.