Generali Arena · Analysis updated 13:39 UTC
Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 2.13 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Rapid Vienna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Rapid Vienna win
55.7% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 2.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Austria Vienna home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Rapid Vienna away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.5%
- 1–18.9%
- 0–27.2%
- 0–16.7%
- 1–36.7%
Recent form
Austria Vienna
- 2026-10-10T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Sturm Graz · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Admira Wacker · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Grazer AK · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Austria Lustenau · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Traiskirchen · 6-0 (W)
Rapid Vienna
- 2026-10-16T17:30:00.000Z · H vs TSV Hartberg · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lask Linz · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs WSG Wattens · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Wolfsberger AC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Austria Klagenfurt · 5-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · Austria Vienna 2-0 Rapid Vienna (Bundesliga)
- 2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · Austria Vienna 1-1 Rapid Vienna (Bundesliga)
- 2026-02-15T16:00:00.000Z · Austria Vienna 2-0 Rapid Vienna (Bundesliga)
- 2025-09-28T15:00:00.000Z · Austria Vienna 3-1 Rapid Vienna (Bundesliga)
- 2025-05-11T15:00:00.000Z · Austria Vienna 1-2 Rapid Vienna (Bundesliga)
- 2025-04-13T15:00:00.000Z · Austria Vienna 0-2 Rapid Vienna (Bundesliga)
- 2025-02-16T16:00:00.000Z · Austria Vienna 2-1 Rapid Vienna (Bundesliga)
- 2024-09-22T15:00:00.000Z · Austria Vienna 1-2 Rapid Vienna (Bundesliga)
- 2024-02-25T16:00:00.000Z · Austria Vienna 0-3 Rapid Vienna (Bundesliga)
- 2023-10-01T15:00:00.000Z · Austria Vienna 0-0 Rapid Vienna (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 24 |
| 2 | Lask Linz | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 19 |
| 3 | Red Bull Salzburg | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 18 |
| 4 | Ried | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | Sturm Graz | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | TSV Hartberg | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 7 | Grazer AK | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -10 | 9 |
| 8 | WSG Wattens | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | Austria Lustenau | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 10 | Austria Vienna | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 7 |
| 11 | SCR Altach | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rapid Vienna win, at 55.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.