Generali Arena · Analysis updated 15:09 UTC
Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.80 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Red Bull Salzburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Red Bull Salzburg win
63.7% probability
Expected goals
0.70 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Austria Vienna home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Red Bull Salzburg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Red Bull Salzburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 14% / 22% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.70 goals for Austria Vienna and 1.80 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.8%
- 0–213.3%
- 1–110.3%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Austria Vienna
- 2026-10-23T17:30:00.000Z · A vs SCR Altach · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Ried · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Sturm Graz · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Admira Wacker · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Grazer AK · 2-2 (D)
Red Bull Salzburg
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Celje · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs SCR Altach · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Grazer AK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-02T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC BW Linz · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 27 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 21 |
| 3 | Lask Linz | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 19 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 17 |
| 5 | Ried | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | TSV Hartberg | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 7 | WSG Wattens | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Grazer AK | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -15 | 10 |
| 9 | SCR Altach | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -6 | 9 |
| 10 | Austria Lustenau | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 11 | Austria Vienna | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 7 |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Red Bull Salzburg win, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.