Ernst Happel Stadion · Referee Jeremie Pignard, France · Analysis updated 13:41 UTC
Austria vs Tunisia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Austria and 1.14 for Tunisia, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives Austria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Austria win
61.0% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Austria home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tunisia away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Austria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 20% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Austria and 1.14 for Tunisia, a combined 3.32 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.0%
- 2–08.6%
- 1–07.8%
- 3–17.1%
Recent form
Austria
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kosovo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-01T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Rep. Of Ireland · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kosovo · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-24T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Israel · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-02T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Spain · 0-3 (L)
Tunisia
- 2026-09-28T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Botswana · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-24T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Uganda · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-25T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Netherlands · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-06-21T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Japan · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-06-15T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Sweden · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-01T18:45:00.000Z · Austria 1-0 Tunisia (Friendlies)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Austria win, at 61.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.