Estadio La Manzanera · Analysis updated 09:55 UTC
Autol vs Agoncillo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Autol and 1.83 for Agoncillo, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Agoncillo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Agoncillo win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Autol home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Agoncillo away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Agoncillo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 29% / 23% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Autol and 1.83 for Agoncillo, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–17.3%
- 2–17.1%
- 0–26.7%
Recent form
Autol
- 2026-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Berceo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs UD Logroñés II · 0-8 (L)
- 2026-04-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Oyonesa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Pradejón · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Anguiano · 1-1 (D)
Agoncillo
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vianés · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Casalarreina · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Calahorra · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Anguiano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Haro Deportivo · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haro Deportivo | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Alfaro | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Berceo | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| 4 | La Calzada | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Pradejón | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Varea | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Calahorra | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 12 |
| 8 | San Marcial | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 9 | Anguiano | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 10 | Oyonesa | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Agoncillo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Comillas | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Yagüe | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 14 | Cenicero | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Calasancio | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 5 |
| 16 | Vianés | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 17 | River Ebro | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
| 18 | Casalarreina | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Agoncillo win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.