Auxerre vs Lyon Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.31 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.32. That distribution gives Lyon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Lyon or Draw

71.4% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

1.01 – 1.31

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Auxerre win29%

Draw28%

Lyon win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals41%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–113.0%
0–112.9%
1–09.9%
0–09.8%
1–28.5%

Why the model likes this

Auxerre home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lyon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 29% / 28% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.01 goals for Auxerre and 1.31 for Lyon, a combined 2.32 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 41% and both teams to score at 46%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Recent form

Auxerre

2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Estac Troyes · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sochaux · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Orleans · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs St Maur Lusitanos · 5-2 (W)
2026-05-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 2-0 (W)

Lyon

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	34	24	4	6	45	76
2	Lens	34	22	4	8	31	70
3	Lille	34	18	7	9	15	61
4	Lyon	34	18	6	10	13	60
5	Marseille	34	18	5	11	18	59
6	Rennes	34	17	8	9	9	59
7	Monaco	34	16	6	12	6	54
8	Strasbourg	34	15	8	11	11	53
9	Lorient	34	11	12	11	-3	45
10	Toulouse	33	12	8	13	1	44
11	Paris FC	34	11	11	12	-3	44
12	Stade Brestois 29	34	10	9	15	-12	39
13	Angers	34	9	9	16	-19	36
14	Le Havre	34	7	14	13	-12	35
15	Auxerre	34	8	10	16	-10	34
16	Nice	34	7	11	16	-23	32
17	Nantes	33	5	8	20	-23	23
18	Metz	34	3	8	23	-44	17

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.