Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps · Analysis updated 21:44 UTC
Auxerre vs Lyon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.68 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Lyon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Lyon win
56.3% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Auxerre home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lyon away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.1%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–211.0%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–07.8%
Recent form
Auxerre
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Clermont Foot · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Brestois 29 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Nice · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyon · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Angers · 1-3 (L)
Lyon
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Anderlecht · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Auxerre · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · Auxerre 1-3 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2026-04-25T13:00:00.000Z · Auxerre 2-3 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2025-11-23T14:00:00.000Z · Auxerre 0-0 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2025-04-13T18:45:00.000Z · Auxerre 1-3 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2024-10-27T13:00:00.000Z · Auxerre 2-2 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2023-02-17T20:00:00.000Z · Auxerre 2-1 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2022-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · Auxerre 1-2 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2012-04-07T19:00:00.000Z · Auxerre 1-2 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2011-11-27T16:00:00.000Z · Auxerre 0-3 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- 2011-05-11T17:00:00.000Z · Auxerre 4-0 Lyon (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lyon win, at 56.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.