Auxerre vs Nice Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.18 for Nice, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Auxerre the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Auxerre or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Auxerre win44%

Draw26%

Nice win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Auxerre home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nice away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Recent form

Auxerre

2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Estac Troyes · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sochaux · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Orleans · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs St Maur Lusitanos · 5-2 (W)
2026-05-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 2-0 (W)

Nice

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hull City · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-08T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cagliari · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventus · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nimes · 4-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-10T19:00:00.000Z · Auxerre 2-1 Nice (Ligue 1)
2025-08-23T17:00:00.000Z · Auxerre 1-3 Nice (Ligue 1)
2025-03-14T19:45:00.000Z · Auxerre 1-1 Nice (Ligue 1)
2024-08-18T13:00:00.000Z · Auxerre 2-1 Nice (Ligue 1)
2024-01-06T19:45:00.000Z · Auxerre 0-0 Nice (Coupe de France)
2023-03-03T20:00:00.000Z · Auxerre 1-1 Nice (Ligue 1)
2022-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · Auxerre 1-1 Nice (Ligue 1)
2018-10-31T17:45:00.000Z · Auxerre 2-3 Nice (Coupe de la Ligue)
2012-04-21T17:00:00.000Z · Auxerre 0-1 Nice (Ligue 1)
2011-12-11T16:00:00.000Z · Auxerre 2-1 Nice (Ligue 1)

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Auxerre	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Angers	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Stade Brestois 29	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Lorient	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Le Havre	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Le Mans	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Lille	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Nice	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lyon	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Marseille	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Paris FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Paris Saint Germain	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Lens	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Rennes	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Strasbourg	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Toulouse	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Estac Troyes	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.