· Analysis updated 02:12 UTC
Auxerre vs Orleans Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.33 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.50 for Orleans, a combined total of 4.83. That distribution gives Auxerre the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Auxerre win
72.4% probability
Expected goals
3.33 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Auxerre home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Orleans away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Auxerre to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 14% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.33 goals for Auxerre and 1.50 for Orleans, a combined 4.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.4%
- 2–16.7%
- 4–16.1%
- 3–25.5%
- 2–25.0%
Recent form
Auxerre
- 2026-10-18T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Le Havre · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Rennes · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Clermont Foot · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Brestois 29 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Nice · 1-0 (W)
Orleans
- 2026-10-01T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bastia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cannes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Amiens · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Versailles · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Le Puy Foot · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Auxerre win, at 72.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.