Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps · Analysis updated 18:28 UTC
Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Auxerre and 2.24 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 3.82. That distribution gives Paris Saint Germain the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Paris Saint Germain win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 2.24
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Auxerre home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Paris Saint Germain away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paris Saint Germain to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 27% / 20% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Auxerre and 2.24 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined 3.82 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.7%
- 1–17.8%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–36.5%
- 2–16.1%
Recent form
Auxerre
- 2026-10-18T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Le Havre · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Rennes · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Clermont Foot · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Brestois 29 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Nice · 1-0 (W)
Paris Saint Germain
- 2026-10-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-17T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Strasbourg · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Mans · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lille | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 2 | Monaco | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Lyon | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Paris Saint Germain | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Lens | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Rennes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Lorient | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Nice | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 | Marseille | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 11 | Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | Auxerre | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 | Strasbourg | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Angers | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Le Mans | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Paris Saint Germain win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.