· Analysis updated 12:30 UTC
Auxerre vs St Maur Lusitanos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.68 for St Maur Lusitanos, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Auxerre the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.2% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Auxerre home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
St Maur Lusitanos away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Auxerre to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 23% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Auxerre and 1.68 for St Maur Lusitanos, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.8%
Recent form
Auxerre
- 2026-10-18T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Le Havre · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Rennes · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Clermont Foot · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Brestois 29 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Nice · 1-0 (W)
St Maur Lusitanos
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Haguenau · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bastia-Borgo · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Colombes 92 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Chambly Thelle FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Le Pays du Valois · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-18T16:00:00.000Z · Auxerre 5-2 St Maur Lusitanos (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.