Avaí U20 vs Athletico PR U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Avaí U20 and 1.65 for Athletico PR U20, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Athletico PR U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Athletico PR U20 win

47.9% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.20 – 1.65

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Avaí U20 home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Athletico PR U20 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Athletico PR U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 28% / 24% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Avaí U20 and 1.65 for Athletico PR U20, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Avaí U20 win28%

Draw24%

Athletico PR U20 win48%

Double chance 1X

52%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

72%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.5%
0–19.5%
1–29.4%
0–27.9%
1–06.9%

Recent form

Avaí U20

2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Barra SC U20 · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Barra SC U20 · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Figueirense U20 · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Concórdia U20 · 8-1 (W)
2026-07-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Nação U20 · 2-0 (W)

Athletico PR U20

2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Luverdense U20 · 5-2 (W)
2026-07-16T00:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino U20 · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs RB Bragantino U20 · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitória U20 · 2-0 (W)
2026-06-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Avaí U20 · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Brasileiro U20 A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras U20	19	13	5	1	31	44
2	Vasco da Gama U20	19	11	3	5	17	36
3	Botafogo U20	19	11	3	5	12	36
4	RB Bragantino U20	19	10	4	5	14	34
5	Athletico PR U20	19	9	5	5	14	32
6	Santos U20	19	9	4	6	5	31
7	Cruzeiro U20	19	8	5	6	8	29
8	Corinthians U20	19	8	5	6	6	29
9	Bahia U20	19	8	5	6	2	29
10	Flamengo U20	19	7	7	5	-1	28
11	São Paulo U20	19	6	7	6	1	25
12	América Mineiro U20	19	6	7	6	-12	25
13	Cuiabá U20	19	6	3	10	-8	21
14	Vitória U20	19	5	5	9	-11	20
15	Fluminense U20	19	5	4	10	-6	19
16	Grêmio U20	19	6	1	12	-11	19
17	Juventude U20	19	5	3	11	-19	18
18	Criciuma U20	19	5	2	12	-16	17
19	Avaí U20	19	3	7	9	-19	16
20	Fortaleza U20	19	2	9	8	-7	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Athletico PR U20 win, at 47.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.