Brazil · Serie B · Matchweek 3222:30

2 – 1

Wednesday, 7 October 2026

Estádio da Ressacada · Referee Bruno Mota Correia, Brazil · Analysis updated 14:36 UTC

Avai vs Londrina Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Avai and 0.88 for Londrina, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Avai the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Avai win

51.2% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.48 – 0.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Avai home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Londrina away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Avai to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 26% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Avai and 0.88 for Londrina, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Avai win51%

Draw26%

Londrina win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–014.1%
1–112.3%
2–010.4%
0–09.5%
2–19.1%

Recent form

Avai

2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Londrina · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ceara · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Criciuma · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Goias · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-15T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Vila Nova · 1-1 (D)

Londrina

2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Avai · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-02T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Criciuma · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-25T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Vila Nova · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Fortaleza EC · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-15T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Ponte Preta · 6-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vila Nova	34	18	8	8	15	62
2	Novorizontino	34	17	10	7	31	61
3	Juventude	34	17	10	7	18	61
4	Fortaleza EC	34	16	12	6	12	60
5	Criciuma	34	17	8	9	7	59
6	Atletico Goianiense	34	14	12	8	10	54
7	CRB	34	15	7	12	3	52
8	Sport Recife	34	13	12	9	8	51
9	Goias	34	14	7	13	-6	49
10	Operario-PR	34	13	9	12	-2	48
11	Cuiaba	33	11	14	8	6	47
12	São Bernardo	34	12	10	12	9	46
13	Botafogo SP	34	12	8	14	0	44
14	Athletic Club	34	10	14	10	1	44
15	Nautico Recife	34	11	10	13	-3	43
16	Ceara	34	11	10	13	-5	43
17	Avai	34	10	7	17	-10	37
18	Londrina	33	7	8	18	-7	29
19	America Mineiro	34	5	5	24	-32	20
20	Ponte Preta	34	3	5	26	-55	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Avai win, at 51.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.