Estádio da Ressacada · Referee Joao Vitor Gobi, Brazil · Analysis updated 14:04 UTC
Avai vs Sport Recife Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Avai and 1.29 for Sport Recife, a combined total of 2.34. That distribution gives Sport Recife the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.7% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Avai home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sport Recife away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sport Recife to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 30% / 28% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Avai and 1.29 for Sport Recife, a combined 2.34 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 0–112.4%
- 1–010.1%
- 0–09.6%
- 1–28.4%
Recent form
Avai
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Londrina · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ceara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Criciuma · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Goias · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Vila Nova · 1-1 (D)
Sport Recife
- 2026-10-01T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Club · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Nautico Recife · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventude · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T00:00:00.000Z · A vs CRB · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Ponte Preta · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 62 |
| 2 | Novorizontino | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 31 | 61 |
| 3 | Juventude | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 61 |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 34 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 60 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 59 |
| 6 | Atletico Goianiense | 34 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 54 |
| 7 | CRB | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 52 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 51 |
| 9 | Goias | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 49 |
| 10 | Operario-PR | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | -2 | 48 |
| 11 | Cuiaba | 33 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 47 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 46 |
| 13 | Botafogo SP | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 0 | 44 |
| 14 | Athletic Club | 34 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 1 | 44 |
| 15 | Nautico Recife | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 43 |
| 16 | Ceara | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | -5 | 43 |
| 17 | Avai | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 37 |
| 18 | Londrina | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | -7 | 29 |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 34 | 5 | 5 | 24 | -32 | 20 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 34 | 3 | 5 | 26 | -55 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.