· Analysis updated 16:06 UTC
Avance Ezcabarte vs Doneztebe FT Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.84 expected goals for Avance Ezcabarte and 1.08 for Doneztebe FT, a combined total of 2.92. That distribution gives Avance Ezcabarte the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Avance Ezcabarte win
55.2% probability
Expected goals
1.84 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Avance Ezcabarte home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Avance Ezcabarte to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 23% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.84 goals for Avance Ezcabarte and 1.08 for Doneztebe FT, a combined 2.92 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 56% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.2%
- 3–16.0%
Recent form
Avance Ezcabarte
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Cantolagua · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Mutilvera · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Subiza · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Beti Onak · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Txantrea · 4-0 (W)
Doneztebe FT
- 2026-10-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Gazte Berriak · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huarte · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Pamplona · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Aoiz · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Cantolagua · 6-0 (W)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Izarra | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 18 |
| 2 | Mutilvera | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Beti Kozkor | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Gazte Berriak | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Avance Ezcabarte | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 6 | Subiza | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 7 | Aoiz | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | San Juan | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Doneztebe FT | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 10 | Valle Egüés | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Txantrea | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | Beti Onak | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -3 | 5 |
| 13 | Cortes | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 14 | Cirbonero | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -9 | 5 |
| 15 | Pamplona | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 16 | Huarte | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 17 | Bidezarra | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 3 |
| 18 | Cantolagua | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Avance Ezcabarte win, at 55.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.