· Analysis updated 13:08 UTC
Avance Ezcabarte vs Gazte Berriak Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Avance Ezcabarte and 0.96 for Gazte Berriak, a combined total of 2.13. That distribution gives Avance Ezcabarte the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.3% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Avance Ezcabarte home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Gazte Berriak away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Avance Ezcabarte to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 29% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Avance Ezcabarte and 0.96 for Gazte Berriak, a combined 2.13 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.9%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–011.8%
- 0–111.3%
- 2–08.2%
Recent form
Avance Ezcabarte
- 2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Huarte · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Doneztebe FT · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Aoiz · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Cantolagua · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Mutilvera · 0-1 (L)
Gazte Berriak
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Pamplona · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Huarte · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Doneztebe FT · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Aoiz · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Cantolagua · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Izarra | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 22 |
| 2 | Mutilvera | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Beti Kozkor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Gazte Berriak | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | San Juan | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 |
| 6 | Avance Ezcabarte | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Subiza | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Aoiz | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Txantrea | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Doneztebe FT | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 |
| 11 | Valle Egüés | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Beti Onak | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Cirbonero | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Huarte | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Pamplona | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Cortes | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 5 |
| 17 | Bidezarra | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 18 | Cantolagua | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -17 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.