· Analysis updated 04:41 UTC
Avance Ezcabarte vs Txantrea Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Avance Ezcabarte and 0.95 for Txantrea, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Avance Ezcabarte the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Avance Ezcabarte win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Avance Ezcabarte home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Txantrea away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.6%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Avance Ezcabarte
- 2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Huarte · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Doneztebe FT · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Aoiz · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Cantolagua · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Mutilvera · 0-1 (L)
Txantrea
- 2026-10-24T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Pamplona · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Izarra · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cortes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Beti Kozkor · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bidezarra · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · Avance Ezcabarte 4-0 Txantrea (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2026-02-21T15:00:00.000Z · Avance Ezcabarte 1-2 Txantrea (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2025-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · Avance Ezcabarte 2-2 Txantrea (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2024-03-17T11:00:00.000Z · Avance Ezcabarte 2-1 Txantrea (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2023-10-28T14:30:00.000Z · Avance Ezcabarte 1-0 Txantrea (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2023-02-04T15:00:00.000Z · Avance Ezcabarte 1-1 Txantrea (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2022-10-08T15:00:00.000Z · Avance Ezcabarte 0-0 Txantrea (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2022-03-19T14:45:00.000Z · Avance Ezcabarte 2-1 Txantrea (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2021-11-13T16:00:00.000Z · Avance Ezcabarte 1-1 Txantrea (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Izarra | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 22 |
| 2 | Mutilvera | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Beti Kozkor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Gazte Berriak | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Subiza | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | Doneztebe FT | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 7 | San Juan | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 |
| 8 | Avance Ezcabarte | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 9 | Aoiz | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Valle Egüés | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Txantrea | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Beti Onak | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Cirbonero | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 8 |
| 14 | Huarte | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Pamplona | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Cantolagua | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -16 | 6 |
| 17 | Cortes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 5 |
| 18 | Bidezarra | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Avance Ezcabarte win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.