Trudovye Rezervy Stadium · Analysis updated 23:39 UTC
Avangard Kursk vs FK Spartak Tambov Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.72 expected goals for Avangard Kursk and 1.40 for FK Spartak Tambov, a combined total of 2.12. That distribution gives FK Spartak Tambov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FK Spartak Tambov win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
0.72 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Avangard Kursk home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FK Spartak Tambov away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FK Spartak Tambov to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 19% / 28% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.72 goals for Avangard Kursk and 1.40 for FK Spartak Tambov, a combined 2.12 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.8%
- 1–112.1%
- 0–012.0%
- 0–211.8%
- 1–08.7%
Recent form
Avangard Kursk
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Spartak Tambov · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Saturn Ramenskoye · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Volna Nizhegorodskaya · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ryazan · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Rotor-2 · 1-1 (D)
FK Spartak Tambov
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Metallurg Lipetsk · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ryazan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zenit Penza · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal Tula II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SKA Rostov · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volna Nizhegorodskaya | 22 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 56 |
| 2 | FK Spartak Tambov | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 53 |
| 3 | Shumbrat | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 40 |
| 4 | Saturn Ramenskoye | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 40 |
| 5 | Ryazan | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 22 | 40 |
| 6 | Salyut-Belgorod | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 39 |
| 7 | Metallurg Lipetsk | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 38 |
| 8 | Avangard Kursk | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 30 |
| 9 | Rodina Moskva III | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 28 |
| 10 | Strogino | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | -10 | 25 |
| 11 | SKA Khabarovsk II | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | -8 | 24 |
| 12 | Zenit Penza | 21 | 7 | 2 | 12 | -16 | 23 |
| 13 | Orel | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -13 | 23 |
| 14 | Rotor-2 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | -20 | 14 |
| 15 | Arsenal Tula II | 22 | 2 | 8 | 12 | -25 | 14 |
| 16 | Kvant | 22 | 1 | 3 | 18 | -42 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FK Spartak Tambov win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.