Tømrermester Jim Jensens Park · Analysis updated 10:12 UTC
Avarta vs Såby Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Avarta and 1.23 for Såby, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Avarta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.6% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Såby away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Avarta to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 26% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Avarta and 1.23 for Såby, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.2%
- 1–27.4%
Recent form
Avarta
Såby
- 2026-08-25T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Roskilde · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vaerlose · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-28T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Avarta · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-21T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Espergærde · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-14T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tårnby FF · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Denmark Series - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Avarta | 18 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 40 |
| 2 | Glostrup | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 40 |
| 3 | Tårnby FF | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 30 |
| 4 | Frederikssund | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | -1 | 25 |
| 5 | Espergærde | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 24 |
| 6 | Såby | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 23 |
| 7 | LSF | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 | Herlev | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | -6 | 22 |
| 9 | Næstved II | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | -16 | 20 |
| 10 | AB Tårnby | 18 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -18 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.