· Analysis updated 13:20 UTC
Aveley vs Maldon & Tiptree Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.33 expected goals for Aveley and 1.22 for Maldon & Tiptree, a combined total of 3.56. That distribution gives Aveley the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Aveley win
62.1% probability
Expected goals
2.33 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aveley home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Maldon & Tiptree away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aveley to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 19% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.33 goals for Aveley and 1.22 for Maldon & Tiptree, a combined 3.56 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 1–18.1%
- 2–07.8%
- 3–17.4%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
Aveley
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cheshunt · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Dulwich Hamlet · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Ware · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentwood Town · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Wingate & Finchley · 3-4 (L)
Maldon & Tiptree
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dulwich Hamlet · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Aveley · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lewes · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Whyteleafe · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Welling United · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Non League Premier - Isthmian table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enfield Town | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | Welling United | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 27 |
| 3 | Lewes | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 26 |
| 4 | Chatham Town | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 24 |
| 5 | Dartford | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 24 |
| 6 | Ramsgate | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 22 |
| 7 | Eastbourne Borough | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 22 |
| 8 | Carshalton Athletic | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | -5 | 22 |
| 9 | Burgess Hill Town | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 20 |
| 10 | Wingate & Finchley | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 11 | Dulwich Hamlet | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 12 | St Albans City | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 13 | Leatherhead | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 14 | Whyteleafe | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -3 | 15 |
| 15 | Cheshunt | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 15 |
| 16 | Aveley | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -1 | 14 |
| 17 | Maldon & Tiptree | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -17 | 14 |
| 18 | Cray Wanderers | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
| 19 | Brentwood Town | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -1 | 12 |
| 20 | Three Bridges | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -13 | 9 |
| 21 | Stanway Rovers | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | -20 | 7 |
| 22 | Whitehawk | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -20 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Aveley win, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.