Avia Świdnik vs Chełmianka Chełm Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Avia Świdnik and 1.00 for Chełmianka Chełm, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Avia Świdnik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Avia Świdnik win

55.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Avia Świdnik home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Chełmianka Chełm away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Avia Świdnik win55%

Draw24%

Chełmianka Chełm win22%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–011.2%
1–111.2%
2–09.8%
2–19.8%
0–06.4%

Recent form

Avia Świdnik

2026-08-22T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-16T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Stal Stalowa Wola · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Łęczna · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia Grudziądz · 4-1 (W)

Chełmianka Chełm

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Korona Kielce II · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Czarni Połaniec · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Star Starachowice · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hetman Zamosc · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-07-04T09:00:00.000Z · Avia Świdnik 2-1 Chełmianka Chełm (Friendlies Clubs)
2026-04-04T13:00:00.000Z · Avia Świdnik 1-0 Chełmianka Chełm (III Liga - Group 4)
2025-09-13T15:15:00.000Z · Avia Świdnik 1-1 Chełmianka Chełm (III Liga - Group 4)
2025-03-26T14:30:00.000Z · Avia Świdnik 2-3 Chełmianka Chełm (III Liga - Group 4)
2024-08-10T15:45:00.000Z · Avia Świdnik 0-1 Chełmianka Chełm (III Liga - Group 4)
2024-05-19T15:00:00.000Z · Avia Świdnik 0-2 Chełmianka Chełm (III Liga - Group 4)
2023-10-28T12:00:00.000Z · Avia Świdnik 2-2 Chełmianka Chełm (III Liga - Group 4)
2023-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · Avia Świdnik 1-0 Chełmianka Chełm (III Liga - Group 4)
2022-10-22T12:00:00.000Z · Avia Świdnik 1-0 Chełmianka Chełm (III Liga - Group 4)
2022-04-13T14:30:00.000Z · Avia Świdnik 1-0 Chełmianka Chełm (III Liga - Group 4)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Avia Świdnik win, at 55.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.