Avia Świdnik vs Hutnik Kraków Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Avia Świdnik and 1.42 for Hutnik Kraków, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Hutnik Kraków the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.37 – 1.42

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Avia Świdnik home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Hutnik Kraków away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hutnik Kraków to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 36% / 25% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.37 goals for Avia Świdnik and 1.42 for Hutnik Kraków, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Avia Świdnik win36%

Draw25%

Hutnik Kraków win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–112.0%
0–18.8%
1–28.5%
1–08.5%
2–18.2%

Recent form

Avia Świdnik

2026-08-22T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-16T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Stal Stalowa Wola · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Łęczna · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia Grudziądz · 4-1 (W)

Hutnik Kraków

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia Grudziądz · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-17T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Chojniczanka Chojnice · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Sokół Kleczew · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Tychy 71 · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Śląsk Wrocław II · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

II Liga - East table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Znicz Pruszków	13	10	2	1	15	32
2	Tychy 71	13	7	6	0	12	27
3	Górnik Łęczna	13	7	2	4	13	23
4	Olimpia Grudziądz	13	6	4	3	-1	22
5	Podhale Nowy Targ	13	5	5	3	2	20
6	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	13	5	4	4	4	19
7	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	13	5	4	4	3	19
8	Stal Stalowa Wola	13	6	1	6	-2	19
9	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	13	5	3	5	3	18
10	Hutnik Kraków	13	5	3	5	2	18
11	Chojniczanka Chojnice	13	5	3	5	0	18
12	Avia Świdnik	13	5	2	6	-4	17
13	Legia Warszawa II	13	5	1	7	3	16
14	Lechia Zielona Góra	13	4	4	5	-4	16
15	Sokół Kleczew	13	2	6	5	-11	12
16	Śląsk Wrocław II	13	3	1	9	-6	10
17	Świt Skolwin	13	2	3	8	-16	9
18	Resovia Rzeszów	13	0	6	7	-13	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.