· Analysis updated 18:06 UTC
Avilés Stadium vs L'Entregu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.04 expected goals for Avilés Stadium and 0.77 for L'Entregu, a combined total of 1.81. That distribution gives Avilés Stadium the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.4% probability
Expected goals
1.04 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Avilés Stadium home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
L'Entregu away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Avilés Stadium to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 32% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.04 goals for Avilés Stadium and 0.77 for L'Entregu, a combined 1.81 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.0%
- 0–016.4%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–112.6%
- 2–08.8%
Recent form
Avilés Stadium
- 2026-10-18T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Langreo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Llanes · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Lealtad · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Gijón II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Praviano · 1-0 (W)
L'Entregu
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martín · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Siero · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Colunga · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Caudal · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Langreo · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Gijón II | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Covadonga | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 16 |
| 3 | Condal | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Mosconia | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Siero | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Caudal | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Praviano | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 8 | Gijón Industrial | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Lealtad | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Colunga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Langreo | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | San Martín | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Avilés Stadium | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 14 | L'Entregu | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | Ceares | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Astur | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Llanes | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 18 | Andes | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.