· Analysis updated 14:36 UTC
Avilés Stadium vs Langreo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Avilés Stadium and 1.82 for Langreo, a combined total of 3.06. That distribution gives Langreo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Langreo win
50.8% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.82
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Avilés Stadium home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Langreo away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Langreo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 26% / 23% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Avilés Stadium and 1.82 for Langreo, a combined 3.06 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–18.5%
- 0–27.7%
- 2–16.6%
Recent form
Avilés Stadium
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Llanes · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Lealtad · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Gijón II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Praviano · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs L'Entregu · 0-1 (L)
Langreo
- 2026-08-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Marino de Luanco · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-08-08T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Llanes · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Oviedo II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Numancia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Valladolid II · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Gijón II | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | Covadonga | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 10 |
| 3 | Mosconia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 4 | Condal | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Siero | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Colunga | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Caudal | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Langreo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Gijón Industrial | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Lealtad | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Praviano | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Ceares | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 13 | L'Entregu | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 14 | Avilés Stadium | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | Llanes | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 2 |
| 16 | San Martín | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 2 |
| 17 | Andes | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 18 | Astur | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Langreo win, at 50.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.